1.5C has long been the magic number for climate change. A forbidden one. One that would have unknown and almost certainly catastrophic effects on civilisation. It’s been written about countless times, echoed through speeches, hallways of power, and the streets of protest. Globally, we cannot allow temperatures to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
A report published this week found there was a 66% likelihood of exceeding the 1.5C threshold in at least one year between 2023 and 2027.
A Loosening Grip On Emissions
This percentage is no doubt going to increase whilst the already loose grip on global emissions continues to slip. New record temperatures are continuously being set around the world, most recently with Spain recording its hottest-ever temperature for April, hitting 38.8C. And worryingly the weather phenomenon ‘El Nino’ set to form in the coming months – the situation is looking dire.
The news shouldn’t come as a surprise. In 2022, the UN’s environmental agency said:
There is “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place” and the failure to reduce carbon emissions means the only way to limit the worst impacts of the climate crisis is a “rapid transformation of societies”.
‘Rapid transformation of societies’ is proving to be an undesirable sticking point. Many in the carbon industries are wanting to shift their responsibilities, by not blaming the cause, but the effects. During the COP27 a Saudi Arabian delegate said:
“We should not target sources of energy; we should focus on emissions. We should not mention fossil fuels.”
Attitudes like these have led to a growing sentiment that fossil fuels can continue to be utilised if measures such as carbon capture are implemented to combat their emissions. According to the UN’s ex-climate chief, Christiana Figueres, this action simply does not fall in line with the global reduction efforts:
“We do not have CCS (Carbon Capture Systems) commercially available and viable over the next five to seven years. It’s just not going to happen. We have an issue of timing here, in addition to a moral issue.”
Profits Before Planet
Effective carbon capture deployment would rely on proactive coordinated measures by companies for the system to be practical but this would be useless if countries ignored their responsibilities. Methane leaks alone from Turkmenistan’s two main fossil fuel fields caused more global heating in 2022 than the entire carbon emissions of the UK.
Before even mentioning the buoyant financial aspect of continuous fossil fuel usage, public morale is going to be damaged by these reports. Conversations around ‘I’ve done my part’ by making the switch to sustainable and zero emission products, such as electric heating or electric boilers, and experiencing the efficiency and benefit gained doing this, the public could perhaps struggle with why they should suffer, whilst others are set to gain.
The gains are easy to see when looking at the financial feast involved. In the UK, the National Grid has reported a jump in annual profits to almost £4.6bn amid growing concern that it is not connecting renewable energy projects fast enough to meet the UK’s climate targets. Worldwide the oil and gas industry has earned the equivalent of $1tn a year in absolute profit. If these large swashes of money were focused on achieving Net Zero and avoiding 1.5C, the situation would not be alarming as now.
The report continued to state that: ‘each year from 2023 to 2027, the global near-surface temperature is predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.8C above the pre-industrial average’
The Climate Change Cycle of Grief
For the last three years, the weather system the globe has been under the influence of was called ‘La Nina’, which has a restricting effect on temperatures around the world. Having been subjected to increasingly record-breaking temperatures whilst in a system that reduces temperatures, doesn’t fare well for ‘El Nino’ which has the opposite effect. It’s uncharted territory, combining this naturally occurring system with human influence warming. 1.5C won’t be a temporary spike, it’ll be a permanent fixture.
As the future role of these heavy carbon emitters, or those connected to them is under threat, they appear to be following the grief cycle.
First, there was complete denial – climate change doesn’t exist, it’s the natural cycle of the world. From 1981 Exxon spent more than $30m on think tanks and researchers that promoted climate denial. In the early 2000s, came anger, with BP launching their carbon footprint calculator, effectively saying it’s the public, not us that’s the problem.
As of now, with sentiments like using hybrid systems or CCS (Carbon Capture Systems), it seems that the bargaining stage of grief has been entered.
If this truly is the cycle that’s being followed by the time it comes for acceptance, it’ll be too late. It’s already too late.