The President of the UN’s COP28 climate conference, Al Jaber has said there is a future for fossil fuels, with the introduction of carbon capture technology against the strong belief of the world’s scientists, who rapidly need the world to transition to clean energy to avoid climate disaster.
To avoid irreversible damage to the environment, global temperatures must be limited to 1.5C and emissions must peak before 2025 and decline 43% by 2030.
False Realities
The annual climate conference is being held in Dubai this November. Al Jaber is the CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), one of the world’s biggest oil and gas exporters. Al Jaber is set to oversee expansion to produce oil and gas equivalent to 7.5bn barrels of oil, according to this new data. 90% of which would have to remain in the ground to meet the net zero scenarios set out by the International Energy Agency.
Mr. Jaber said ‘“(We) need to come to terms with some realities” and embrace an energy transition that includes “all sources of energy.”
The expansion for new oil and gas comes at the same time as the UN secretary-general called for the ceasing of funding or licensing for new fossil fuels.
He also emphasised the role of technologies like carbon capture in reducing planet-heating pollution, allowing the continuation of high carbon emitters.
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, which provide a means of ‘sucking’ carbon out of the atmosphere, are one of the most in-demand areas of climate research, but also the most controversial. The UK government has committed £20bn over the next 20 years to developing carbon capture storage.
Reliance and heavy investment in a system that would have no reason to exist, if a complete switch to renewables was made, seems a costly step in the wrong direction.
The ‘Global Stocktake’
The recent major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC) warned that the carbon emissions from the world’s already existing fossil fuel projects would alone be enough to drive the climate past 1.5C. Expansion, when existing projects already tip the world over the edge of the threshold, is counter-productive and dangerous
This year’s COP28 carries significant importance as it’s the first time since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 that countries are going to assess their progress – dubbed the ‘Global Stocktake’.
The ‘Global Stocktake’ will no doubt prove that most, if not all countries are falling way short of their climate targets. Al Jaber’s comments will only prompt further questions about the urgency of the transition.
There is public support for a switch to cleaner energy. According to a worldwide survey, 68% of people think governments and businesses need to act now or risk failing future generations. In the UK, 81% of adults in Great Britain are reported to have made ‘some or a lot’ of lifestyle changes to help tackle climate change.
In the case of countries not listening to the public and continuing to flirt the line with disaster, it would have dire consequences for future generations.
Stronger Investment
In the UK alone, investment in clean energy has fallen 10% in the past year, and fossil fuel drilling in the North Sea is set to continue and the rollout of its heat pump scheme hasn’t struck the imagination.
The focus should be firmly on transitioning outdated systems to sustainable heating and power.
Areas with potential for gas and oil expansion additionally have the means to support eco-friendly and clean energy production. This has already been showcased by the UK – Norway undersea cable, which allows the two nations to share in the wind and hydroelectric power.
There is also the LionLink, linking the UK and Netherlands, connecting the North Sea wind farms to provide enough electricity to power more homes than Manchester and Birmingham combined.
Excuses for the continued use of fossil fuel-based systems don’t bode well for the ambition of achieving net zero. With COP28, being held in an oil-rich region and being overseen by the head of an oil company, the level of public confidence in their government’s ability to act will undoubtedly begin to fall.
Carbon Capture: Half Measures
It is difficult to understand the dual role Mr. Jaber will take with these new comments, expanding and continuing to drill for oil and gas whilst simultaneously announcing countries are not reaching their climate targets.
Understanding the half-measures being taken by those attached and financially buoyed by oil and gas isn’t hard. From 2016 to 2020 fossil fuel companies received £9.9 billion
in tax relief for new exploration and production. Reducing electricity levies is in the pipeline but a wider scope, including higher taxation for fossil fuels, would need to be adopted.
Strict and intensive measures need to be agreed upon for November’s COP28. A ground-breaking renewed agreement, similar to the COP21 when the Paris Agreement was signed but with increased consequential powers.
However, with oil and gas firmly centre stage a more realistic outcome could involve goalposts being moved again and ambition quashed.
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